Bank of Canada Releases Surveys – Q4 2025 Key Findings on Sentiment

On January 19, 2026, the Bank of Canada released its latest quarterly economic surveys, painting a complex picture of the nation’s economic mood. The data revealed subdued business sentiment that showed modest signs of improvement, alongside deteriorating consumer confidence amid persistent trade tensions. The two key releases—the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—covered the fourth quarter of 2025 and provided critical insights for policymakers and analysts tracking Canada’s economic trajectory.

These surveys, based on interviews with approximately 100 firms’ senior management for the Business Outlook Survey and representative consumer sampling for the Consumer Expectations Survey, serve as vital indicators for monetary policy decision-making. While some metrics demonstrated stabilization, elevated inflation expectations and ongoing uncertainty about trade relations continue to shape the economic landscape as Canada moves through 2026.

The next quarterly release is scheduled for April 20, 2026, at 11:30 ET, according to the Bank of Canada’s official announcement.

What Surveys Did the Bank of Canada Recently Release?

The Bank of Canada maintains a regular schedule of economic surveys that capture sentiment across business and consumer populations. The two primary surveys released in January 2026 serve distinct but complementary purposes in assessing economic conditions.

Business Outlook Survey

The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) draws on interviews with approximately 100 firms’ senior management representatives across various sectors. The survey tracks business sentiment, sales expectations, investment intentions, hiring plans, wage growth, and price pressures. According to the Bank of Canada’s publication page, this quarterly assessment provides a comprehensive view of how firms perceive current and future economic conditions.

Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) summarizes household views on personal finances, spending intentions, labor market conditions, and inflation. This survey data helps policymakers understand how consumers are adjusting their behavior in response to economic developments and price changes.

Survey Overview: Q4 2025 Releases

Key Findings from Q4 2025 Surveys

• Business Outlook indicator improved slightly to -1.78 but remained in negative territory
• Recession expectations among firms fell to 22% from 33% in Q3 2025
• Future sales expectations turned positive, though still below long-run averages
• Consumer confidence indicator declined modestly after Q3 gains
• Consumer financial health worsened with elevated debt miss risk
• Consumer spending intentions lowered across the surveyed population
• Staff reduction plans reached highest level since 2016

When and How Often Does the Bank of Canada Release Surveys?

The Bank of Canada follows a consistent quarterly release schedule for its major surveys, with additional ad-hoc releases when warranted. Understanding this schedule helps stakeholders anticipate data releases that may influence monetary policy discussions.

Survey Release Schedule

The Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations are both released quarterly, typically on the same date to provide coordinated economic intelligence. The upcoming Q1 2026 release is scheduled for April 20, 2026, at 11:30 ET, with a lock-up period beginning at 10:00 ET.

The most recent Q4 2025 surveys were released on January 19, 2026, under a 09:00 ET lock-up procedure, consistent with the standard Bank of Canada publication protocol.

Recent Release Timeline

1. January 19, 2026: Q4 2025 BOS and CSCE released (most current data)
2. October 2025: Q3 2025 surveys released
3. July 2025: Q2 2025 surveys released
4. April 2025: Q1 2025 surveys released
5. April 20, 2026: Q1 2026 surveys scheduled

What Are the Key Findings from the Latest Bank of Canada Surveys?

The Q4 2025 surveys reveal a nuanced economic picture. While some indicators suggest stabilization in business sentiment, consumer confidence showed deterioration, and both groups maintained elevated inflation expectations compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Business Outlook Survey Highlights

According to TD Economics analysis, the Q4 2025 Business Outlook Survey showed the overall indicator improved marginally to -1.78 from previous readings. Recession expectations among surveyed firms fell notably to 22% from 33% in Q3, suggesting reduced pessimism about near-term economic prospects.

Future sales expectations turned positive during the quarter, though remaining below long-run historical averages. Investment intentions remained subdued, with firms prioritizing maintenance spending over expansion. Wage growth stabilized at moderate levels, while input and output price pressures showed signs of easing.

Importantly, firms reported less tariff pressure compared to previous quarters, according to RBC Economics. However, export expectations remained muted, and firms anticipate only modest demand growth for 2026.

Consumer Expectations Survey Highlights

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations painted a less optimistic picture. The consumer confidence indicator declined modestly after Q3 gains, with the reading falling below the pre-pandemic average for the quarter.

Financial health metrics worsened during Q4 2025, with consumers reporting elevated risks of debt missed payments. Spending intentions declined, and concerns about job security rose despite a slight improvement in the labor market index. Fear of job loss remained elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Inflation Expectations Across Surveys

How Do Bank of Canada Surveys Influence Monetary Policy?

The surveys released by the Bank of Canada serve as critical inputs into the monetary policy decision-making process. The Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations provide real-time sentiment data that complements traditional economic indicators.

Role of Survey Data in Policy Decisions

Survey results inform the Bank’s assessment of economic momentum, price pressures, and systemic risks. The subdued business sentiment reflected in Q4 2025 data, combined with elevated but stabilizing inflation expectations, supports a cautious approach to monetary policy calibration, according to analysis from TD Economics.

The data revealing restrained hiring and investment intentions suggests that businesses remain uncertain about the durability of any improvement in economic conditions. This caution, balanced against progress on disinflation, shapes the policy environment as the Bank navigates between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.

Trade Uncertainty and Policy Implications

Trade tensions, particularly related to tariffs in sectors such as metals and automotive manufacturing, have been a persistent theme throughout 2025. While the Q4 surveys indicate some stabilization in tariff pressure, the uncertainty continues to constrain business planning and investment decisions.

The interaction between trade uncertainty and inflation expectations creates a complex policy challenge. Businesses report that they have not been able to fully pass through tariff-related cost increases due to weak consumer demand, which simultaneously suppresses inflation and limits profitability.

What Is Confirmed and What Remains Unclear?

Economic Context and Implications

The Q4 2025 survey results must be understood within the broader context of Canada’s economic performance throughout 2025. The year was characterized by significant trade-related uncertainty stemming from the US trade conflict, which damaged both business and consumer confidence in earlier quarters.

The modest improvement in business sentiment during Q4 represents a tentative stabilization rather than a robust recovery. Firms report expectations of only modest demand growth in 2026, with muted export prospects continuing to weigh on the outlook. The prioritization of maintenance over expansion in investment spending suggests that businesses are preserving capital rather than committing to growth initiatives.

For consumers, the elevated concern about debt and job security reflects ongoing anxiety about economic prospects. While the longer-term inflation expectations have shown some improvement, declining to 3.1% from 3.7%, the persistent elevation of near-term expectations indicates that households remain uncertain about the trajectory of prices and their purchasing power.

The quarterly survey data provides a consistent framework for tracking these sentiment indicators over time, allowing policymakers and analysts to identify trends and turning points in Canadian economic conditions.

Sources and Methodology Notes

The Business Outlook Survey is based on interviews with about 100 firms’ senior management, tracking business sentiment, sales, investment, hiring, wages, and prices.

Bank of Canada, Business Outlook Survey publication page

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations summarizes consumer views on finances, spending, labor market conditions, and inflation expectations.

Bank of Canada, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations publication page

Survey reports and underlying data are available through the Bank of Canada’s publications portal, with raw data files downloadable for both the Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

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Summary

The Bank of Canada’s Q4 2025 surveys reveal an economy in a state of tentative stabilization following a year marked by trade uncertainty. Business sentiment showed marginal improvement, with recession expectations declining and sales expectations turning positive, though both remain below long-run averages. Consumer confidence deteriorated modestly, with worsened financial health and lowered spending intentions. Inflation expectations remain elevated but are showing signs of normalization in the longer-term horizon. The next survey release is scheduled for April 20, 2026, and will provide updated signals on whether the stabilization evident in Q4 represents a sustainable trend or a temporary respite before further challenges emerge.

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